As we stand on the precipice of the Deshaun Watson trade, a point of inflection faces the Texans & Nick Caserio. Acquiring a plethora of assets would give him the necessary capital to invest in a talent-barren roster that looks, at present, multiple years removed from competitiveness. But is that all about to change?
Parameters of a trade:
There’s been diverging narratives placed into the media over last few days. In the absence of legal issues and if the Texans had of traded Watson before the draft in 2021, a baseline price of 4 first round picks – considering the unicorn-like rarity of the proposition on offer – would have been the fair asking price. But now, if Caserio ends up within the region of: three first-rounders, two second-rounders, plus multiple starter calibre players (ideally on rookie deals), most would accept that as fair return on investment, albeit not ideal.
Potential Trade Partners:
Carolina – A Home Coming For Deshaun with an Aggressive Owner?
Carolina Receives: Deshaun Watson,
Houston Receives: 2022 6th Overall
2023 1st, 2023 3rd
2024 1st, 2024 3rd
Derrick Brown, Yetur Gross-Matos, CJ Henderson, Robbie Anderson
Trade-judo versus owner, David Tepper’s pressure for quick success is a factor that can’t be overlooked. But from a QB replacement angle, a trade being weighted into future years is preferable for the Texans though year 1 may feel short changed, it will be eased by procuring Derrick Brown.
Acquiring from teams more than one top tier player will difficult without waiving premium picks but both Jaycee Horn or Chinn would be worthwhile considering. Brain Burn is a flashy option but Derrick Brown’s top-10 talents are far rarer than a mid-1st round pick form a poor 2019 draft class.
Houston acquires an extra player up-front due to the lack of year-1 picks. Robbie Anderson is cut-candidate, throw-in who can stretch the field. Matos – 38th overall pick in 2020 has shown some mixed results due to a combination of limited snaps and injuries in first two years. The 35inch arms at 265lbs is a prototype to work with. Whilst adding much needed help in the secondary, via C.J. Henderson, who may be a slot primarily for this career. The top 10-pick from Jacksonville that Urban hastily threw away, again can bring some upside.
New Orleans – A move to Louisiana despite the coaching transition?
New Orleans Receives: Deshaun Watson, 2022 4th
Houston Receives: 2022 18th Overall, 2022 2nd, 3rd (Comp.)
2023 1st, 2023 4th
Paulson Adebo, Cesar Ruiz, Marcus Davenport
If this is the Watson camp’s preferred route, there’s logical to believe that it suppresses the pick value, whilst the Saints have less plausible players to return. Having the 18th pick, isn’t ideal as the primary future asset. But Loomis can offer this years 2nd and allow the Texans then trade up from their 4th round spot into a key spot in the 2022 draft class. This via the compensatory pick from the Trey Hendrickson contract.
Adebo presents a young corner who was taken in third round last year, 66 tackles & 3INT’s in year one, is a N.O. primary concession. The upside of Payton Turner who only played 5 games last year may be enough for the Saints to part with Davenport who would needs to be extended against a tricky cap situation, he set to play on his 5th year option. Therefore giving up Paulson over Turner seems feasible, whilst Cesar Ruiz would be a perfect need to fill on the interior.
Seattle – Can Carroll & Schneider convince Watson it’s not another re-build?
Seattle Receives: Deshaun Watson, 2023 4th
Houston Receives: 2022 9th (via Denver), 41st Overall
2023 1st, 2023 1st (via Denver), 2023 2nd (via Denver)
Going down the primary pick-heavy route is the idea scenario for Houston but wether Watson will waive his clause for Seattle is a bigger question. Their roster is in need of picks & there’s few players they could give up beyond throw-in types. This trade allows the Seahawks to retain two 2nd’s over the next two years, whilst Houston is in prime spot with three 1st’s next season to address quarterback, should they be convinced by the ’23 class. The valuation (3x1st & 2x2nd, 1-player) pays a premium versus the Seattle selling price of Wilson, accounting for the 7 extra years of youth Watson can give a club.
Darrell Taylor represents an unknown but trading former Vol. saves a pick of third-round equivalent value. After missing his rookie year, he rebounded with 6.5 sacks in his first pro-season, there’s an adage of: you can never have enough pass rushers.
Whatever the outcome, the Texans could be about to kick start a new era, as fans from multiple clubs eagerly await the outcome, of the Deshaun Watson saga.